The view from Calgary (and the Toronto Star)
“The NDP grassroots won’t even go door knocking anymore . . . the party only appeals to the mushy middle,” says Mitch Diamantopoulos, head of the journalism school at the University of Regina, a longtime activist and observer of Saskatchewan politics.
For Diamantopoulos, the problems began in the 1990s when then premier Roy Romanow swung the party to the right. “Saskatchewan shifted away from a cooperative, public enterprise approach and as a result a lot of longtime NDPers lost their enthusiasm for the party.”
At the same time, farmers were giving up on agriculture and moving to Saskatoon or Regina. As the province became urbanized, the NDP lost its traditional rural base.
In many ways, 62-year-old Lingenfelter personifies the confusion about what the party really stands for. He grew up in southwestern Saskatchewan on a large family farm. First elected as an NDP MLA in 1978, Lingenfelter managed to survive the near sweep by the Progressive Conservatives in 1982 and served as opposition house leader.
When the NDP was returned to power, he became a cabinet minister and eventually deputy premier and was seen as a likely successor to Romanow.
But in 2000 Lingenfelter abruptly resigned and accepted a senior position with an oilpatch heavyweight, Calgary-based Nexen Inc.
Not surprisingly, Lingenfelter became something of a trophy head in corporate Calgary — the former NDP cabinet minister who had joined the fold. So much so that in 2002 when a group of Calgary businessmen and politicians organized a fundraiser for the Saskatchewan Party at the Petroleum Club, Lingenfelter attended on behalf of Nexen and when introduced was given a special round of applause.
There are four things that I see going on in this election. I am not an NDP insider or supporter although I have a good working relationship with many of them. The first is Brad Wall. He just hasn’t screwed up that many things. If the old line is true that governments are so much elected but rather defeat themselves, the Saskatchewan Party haven’t made that many mistakes which makes it really hard to gain any traction against them. Along with that is that I think the NDP elected Lingenfelter because they thought Wall would be a one term wonder and they would be back in power this election. The choice of Lingenfelter as leader was an odd one because it was a return to the past, a past that Saskatchewan voters had just soundly rejected in 2007.
Next up is that I don’t think the NDP are any good in raising money. NDP candidates are sharing campaign offices in ridings they should be competitive in the cities. During the drive out to Arlington Beach, we drive through Watrous, Nokomis, and then from there we went to Regina through Craven and Lumsden. We only saw one NDP sign the entire three hour drive. One sign. Even if they were not getting any traction with voters, you would have expected to see signs in the ditches and other public spaces. There were none. Meanwhile there was a lot of Saskatchewan Party signs (all on public land) but even in traditional NDP ridings in Regina. What does it mean? Signs cost money and I don’t see any of that in rural ridings. I am assuming that the reason that Judy Junor is using office space downtown rather than in our her (hotly contested) riding is money as well. This isn’t a couple of blocks outside her riding but is across the river from her riding. C’mon.
You can blame that on the leader but raising money is also backend process that involves cultivating thousands of relationships and then understanding what buttons to push to get them to cough up $20 or $100 when you need it. The federal Conservatives are masters of this and have been going back to the PC Canada Fund. Whether it is direct mail or email, the NDP need to find a better way to cultivate, understand, and benefit from those relationships because the Saskatchewan Party can outspend them anytime in the election cycle.
Thirdly, the NDP are terrible users of new media. Look at the video the Saskatchewan Party has produced versus the media the NDP are putting out. Look at how Brad Wall is using Twitter vs. how Dwain Lingenfelter uses Twitter. Why do I care how Link uses Twitter? Social media allows voters to connect to a leader and if you are just posting links to some photos posted to Facebook and never send an @ reply, you aren’t connecting. Wall understands that, Link doesn’t. Not connecting to voters isn’t always fatal (like Stephen Harper) but it normally is (Elwin Hermanson, Michael Ignatieff, Stephane Dion). Link didn’t connect to anyone online.
Finally, as much as Ryan Bater needs to win his seat in North Battleford, the NDP need him to win even more. The NDP don’t do well against the unified right in Saskatchewan, they never have. Brad Wall, Grant Devine, Ross Thatcher… when a third party (whether it be the PCs or the Libs) get 15% of the vote, the NDP win. When they don’t, the NDP lose. Their votes doesn’t grow enough to beat back the centre right challenger (for a contemporary example see Frank Quennel who is about to lose to Roger Parent in Saskatoon Meewasin). It is why I was so surprised that the NDP didn’t want Ryan Bater in the debate. A collapse in the Liberal vote benefits the Saskatchewan Party and no one else. If I am the NDP I am hoping and praying that Bater wins, even at the expense of their own seat for the long term prospects of the party.
I don’t believe that the NDP are staying home and off the doorsteps because of what Roy Romanow did, I think there are elections that you win and some that you lose and this is one that the NDP are going to lose. Wall’s performance is out of their control but if they don’t get the other three things solved, they are facing an uphill battle no matter what happens and no matter who the leader is.