Murray Mandryk hits on the NDP campaign here. My thoughts on his thoughts are here.
- Brad Wall ran the classic front runner incumbent campaign. It was the same campaign the federal NDP ran last fall and the BC NDP ran in British Columbia. The difference was that he was the front runner and the incumbent.
- I thought the Saskatchewan Party platform was visionless and not worth a second mandate but the NDP didn’t do anything to discredit it or point out that with the economy struggling, some of it’s major planks were not going to happen. When your major plank is helping people sell more puffed wheat cake and fixing more highways and that is really it, it’s a visionless campaign.
- With both parties running candidates with DWIs, neither campaign had any moral high ground. It’s the first campaign with what is written on Facebook was considered worse than driving while impaired. Saskatchewan values?
- Plus, we all know the next budget will have the Saskatchewan Party saying a) we don’t have a spending problem, we have a revenue problem and b) massive cuts to education, health, social services. It’s going to be bad for all of us. I am not saying that it is the wrong path but they do have a revenue and a spending problem and the spending is going to have to stop.
- How poor are the candidates for the NDP that it never occurred to them do delete their Facebook accounts when they decided to run or the nomination. Also, the lack of simple vetting was ridiculous and speaks poorly about Frank Quennel’s leadership of the NDP. It was a fixed election date, not a snap election. That cut the knees out from Cam Broten in the first week of the campaign. They never recovered.
- I really don’t care what NDP candidates in rural Saskatchewan say to me during the campaign about the leader but it does speak to the lack of discipline they have and the state of the party in rural Saskatchewan. This goes back to the Romanow years and isn’t getting better. The NDP are very unpopular in rural ridings and nothing we saw in this campaign will change that. For years the Saskatchewan Party was looking for an urban break through. Remember Elwin Hermanson’s last campaign? He lived in Saskatoon and Regina and didn’t see the promised breakthrough. My point is that I think the NDP have massive problems in rural Saskatchewan an it is going to take them at least one more election before that changes.
- For those of you out there who are going to write off the NDP after this election, may I show you about a hundred articles saying the same thing after Stephane Dion and then Michael Ignatieff lost. Also the Liberals were in third place going into this last provincial election. Same thing for Mike Harris and the Progressive Conservatives when he won in Ontario the first time.
- Speaking of the Liberals, I think it was a huge mistake for Darrin Lameroux to avoid Twitter and social media during the entire campaign. It’s free media and it was the only medium the Liberals could use that would give them a provincial voice. Instead he decided to meet people face to face. Huge mistake. It’s not an either/or, it’s a both/and.
- No campaign took advantage of one of the best political blogs out there and that was Tammy Robert’s musings. I don’t know what Tammy’s stats are like but it was well read by many politicos and journalists in the province. Howard Dean got huge play out of posting on Larry Lessig’s blog for a week. Part of me thinks that it would have been advantageous for Darrin Lameroux or Cam Broten to do some guest posts and interact with commenters during the writ for a day.
- Personally I don’t think the NDP should turf Cam Broten. Dalton McGuinty went through this. Rachel Notley went through this. Stephen Harper went through this. Tossing the leader won’t ail what is wrong for the NDP. Plus a lot is going to change in four years.
CBC offers up their ridings to watch and it seemed like a pretty odd list so here are my ridings to watch tonight.
- Saskatoon Meewasin. The Sask Party threw a ton of resources in an attempt to unseat Frank Quennell. If they Quennell wins, it means that the NDP still has some life in the cities, the Saskatchewan Party wins, it means that no NDP seats are safe moving forward. Prediction: Roger Parent wins
- Saskatoon Fairview: Will voters be unhappy that their city councilor and MLA reside in the same household. I donâ€™t think Andy Iwanchuk will lose but it could cost him some votes and make a race close in a riding that Jennifer Campeau is running hard to win. Prediction: Andy Iwanchuk wins
- Saskatoon Nutana: Long a safe NDP seat, I heard rumors that the campaign isnâ€™t going that well (no NDP scrutineers in the advance polls). Interesting to see if the seat flips or not. Prediction: Very narrow win for Cathy Sproule
- Saskatoon Eastview: I wrote about this before but I am still trying to figure out why Judy Junor is using a downtown campaign office to run on the eastside. I think this could be a victim of the green wave. Prediction: Corey Tochor wins
- Battlefords: I hear from Sask Party people that Ryan Bater is under 20% but I also hear that he is winning the sign war. Itâ€™s going to come down to vote splits but letâ€™s go out on a limb and call it for Bater. If he doesnâ€™t win, the Liberals wonâ€™t be a political party provincially by the next election.
- I was correct about Saskatoon Meewasin
- I was wrong about Saskatoon Fairview, Jennifer Campeau won in a shocking upset.
- I was kind of right about Nutana, Cathy Sproule won a tight race but I was DMâ€™d by former MLA Pat Atkinson who told me that the NDP were very well organized. She was right, I was wrong. Partly because I missed the changes in advance poll scrutineers.
- I was right in Saskatoon Eastview.
- I was right about Ryan Bater in Battlefords. He was beaten badly and I donâ€™t know what the future of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party is except that Ralph Goodale lost in 1982 before winning in 1986.
I know what you are thinking, when did the Contextless Links return? Well, right now. I am going to be using them again as a place to empty out my notebook every day as a way to give some life to the site. If I post them here, I can also find them again when I need them. Still undecided if I will use Windows Live Writer or have delicious dump them here once a day.
- My wife endorsed Cam Broten for Saskatoon Massey Place. Camâ€™s election website is here. Personally on our block, NDP MLA Frank Quennell is running even harder than Cam so I may endorse him (our street is on the border for both ridings and Canada Post has issues with boundaries). Perhaps the ultimate endorsement for Cam is from the Saskatchewan Party who does not look to be running a serious campaign in the riding.
- 27.4% of US renters & 15% of those with mortgages spend more than HALF their income on housing
- Brian Toppâ€™s emphasis on political strategy makes him sound a lot like the political back room strategist he is. Of course Brian Toppâ€™s campaign makes we wonder how long it will be until we see Warren Kinsella declare for the federal Liberal leadership. If this happens, I wonder if Stephen Harper will be joining SFH on stage for the Liberal caucus Christmas party.
- Dave Hutton says that both Pat Atkinson and Henry Dayday are thinking of running for Saskatoon mayor in 2012. He also has this, â€œThe 2012 election, which is 13 months away, is shaping up to be interesting. There are rumours some prominent members of the business community are discussing running a slate of candidates. Former candidates Mike Bzowey, Ainsley Robertson, Mark Horseman,and Sean Shaw, all indicated theyâ€™re running for council seats.â€ I have heard the rumors of a business slate being run and I wonder if my sources are the same as Daveâ€™s. Of course the Mayor has alluded to the same thing as well.
- Putin says that Arctic shipping will soon rival the Suez Canal. In anticipation of this move, both England and France are preparing an invasion force.
I talk enough with Cam Broten online and offline that I was kind of shocked to see him at my door a couple of weeks ago. I am pretty sure he took two weeks off from door knocking after the last election before he started to do it again asking voters what they were thinking. Several times I have seen on Twitter that he has been out in either scorching heat and freezing cold over the last couple of years chatting with people and I think it has paid off for him. A recently poll showed that 50% of voters in Saskatoon Massey Place are planning to vote NDP.
Despite all of his door knocking in our neighbourhood over the years, I think this is the first time we have been home and I suppose it signifies the unofficial start of the fall election campaign. If I had any doubts about it, it was confirmed when I got a campaign flyer inviting me out to Frank Quennellâ€™s campaign breakfast in Saskatoon Meewasin. Thatâ€™s right, not only do I have one NDP MLA asking for my support, I now have two.
Avenue D is the boundary line for Saskatoon Massey Place which has be one of the more ridiculous things I have seen. Avenue D is not a major street and I canâ€™t figure out why the much more natural boundary of Idylwyld Drive is not used. Canada Post seems to agree with me and delivers Saskatoon Meewasin campaign literature here and I assume Saskatoon Massey Place campaign literature to a few streets as well.
It doesnâ€™t seem to be a big deal for Saskatoon Massey Place, Cam Broten is likely to win but the cross over into Saskatoon Meewasin is unfortunate as that could be a really close election between Frank Quennell and Roger Parent.
Speaking of Roger Parent, this is not a flattering campaign bio pick of Roger. First of all it looks like he wants to fight me, secondly, the Saskatchewan Party is cutting corners with graphic designers as this is one bad Photoshop cut out of Roger.
I am not sure what it is about official campaign bio photos but why do conservatives always seem to go with the tough guy pose (tough on crime, tough of jobs, tough on deficits) when running against an incumbent? Maybe they are only happy when they are elected. The other explanation is that he knew how little they were paying the graphic artist.