NDP Leadership Race Polls

While the LeaderPost published a poll of voter intentions in the province for the provincial NDP leader, I was curious when I heard about some internal polling done by the candidates themselves.  Over the last couple of weeks the Broten, Meili, and Wotherspoon campaigns have all done some polling.  Interestingly enough, the buzz is that both the Wotherspoon campaign has commissioned two polls right after the other.  If you don’t like the results of the first poll, maybe you just keep polling?

The Broten campaign has been the only one talking about the results which if accurate, makes sense.  It is bad news for both Ryan Meili and Trent Wotherspoon.  I know Nate Silver says to not believe campaign polling but it’s all we have.  Until the Wotherspoon and Meili camps post their numbers, I only have the Broten numbers to go on and here they are.  

When I looked at the poll, it was done by Public Polling Inc which is a polling company out of Toronto (there is a Saskatchewan Party attack ad in there someplace).  It was a large poll with a margin of error is only +/- 2.2%.   The poll asked two basic questions — (1) “If you were to vote for the new NDP leader today, who would be your first choice?” and (2) “Who would be your second choice for the new NDP Leader?”  The results of the poll show the following breakdown of first ballot support among decided voters throughout the entire province:

If the poll is correct, it looks like a 3rd ballot victory for Cam Broten and he would become the next leader of the opposition.  Trent Wotherspoon has either lost his support or pundits have really overestimated his support in the first place.  Maybe that is why he is polling so much.  According to the poll, Broten is the second choice of most of the people surveyed.  With the NDP at about 11,000 members and with the vast majority of them casting a ballot; I can’t see the convention floor delegates having enough votes to change the outcome but I have been wrong many times before.

The end result is that a) it’s going to be a boring convention b) Cam Broten will become the next leader of the opposition c) the Saskatchewan Party is probably already cutting the attack ads on Broten as I post this.

It also means that 2015 is going to be an interesting election. 

Update: I immediately was emailed as asked if who I was voting for.  I am not a member of any political party and therefore won’t be casting a ballot in this race.  I am just looking at it from the outside.

Column: Act to ensure your voice is heard

My column in The StarPhoenix

When I write about politics, some co-workers and friends tell me they don’t read it as they have "no time for politics." Well, I hope today is the exception and they head out and vote.

I don’t expect much drama and tension, and I don’t think it will surprise any of us if Premier Brad Wall is still the premier on Tuesday, with a slightly larger caucus. Apparently, the vaunted orange wave loses steam somewhere this side of Winnipeg.

While the results of the election may not be in doubt, what is in doubt is the quality of government it will provide and what kind of MLAs we will be electing.

What’s interesting is that those factors are partially determined by us, the voters, not just tonight but tomorrow, as well.

Citizens tend to be more engaged at a municipal level. We all have the ability to connect and engage politically. If you send an email to a councillor or the mayor, you know they will get it. An increasing number of them are on Twitter, making it easier to connect with them.

If you need to talk to councillors in person, the city has a time where you can address council each meeting.

If that isn’t your cup of tea, try one of the ward town hall meetings hosted by Mayor Don Atchison and your ward councillor. The mayor isn’t there alone; he brings along a cadre of senior civic administrators. Coun. Darren Hill has been tweeting during some of the town hall meetings.

It’s not about city hall talking to voters as it is the city wanting to listen to what we, the citizens, have to say.

Despite the effort the city puts into town hall meetings, attendance has been quite low, with only 20 to 30 people at many of the meetings. We complain that civic leaders don’t listen, but we don’t go when they show up to listen.

Our provincial legislature does not have similar accommodations for citizen feedback. While all councillors have a say in the legislative process in the city, provincially the power is concentrated in cabinet. You can’t address the legislature without an invitation, and the location of government itself limits access for much of the province.

Individual MLAs have roles on committee, but they have a party whip who tells them how to vote in most situations. It’s a system designed to be controlled from the premier’s office rather than by the public, but even that is changing.

There was much written about the last federal vote being the first social media election. In the end that proved hyperbolic, as most candidates just tweeted about how great their leader was and how well everything was going. Pretty boring stuff, as they used tweets as a broadcast medium.

Time will tell if our new MLAs want to actually listen or just talk, but the technology exists for those who want to connect; and it even works after the election. Two of the best listeners were New Democrats Cam Broten and Pat Atkinson, whose use of Twitter raised the bar for how accessible an MLA could be.

Broten has directed me and others to answers to questions we hadn’t even got around to asking him yet.

Atkinson was part question period commentator, part historian, and was possibly the biggest Sheepdogs cheerleader as the band ascended to the cover of Rolling Stone. I hope the Saskatchewan Party MLAs will follow their lead.

Every election, some people get into office who don’t deserve our vote. It’s how democracy works and, if we are lucky, their party will keep them a long way away from power and then toss them out in the next nomination meeting. We also send MLAs to Regina who are going as true public servants, who want to connect and want us to be part of the process for the next four years.

While the electoral process ends tonight, governance starts tomorrow and it’s something that we have an opportunity to play a role in. At a time when voter turnout is declining, we forget that our ability to participate in government is increasing.

How you do that is up to you. Our parliamentary system has one party in power and one in Opposition to provide a check and balance. Both rely on feedback, input and participation from their constituents. Plug in on either side, for debate is needed, but don’t just send MLAs to Regina and forget them.

Our voice matters today and especially tomorrow.

jordon@jordoncooper.com

Really? Is that all you got?

I was just surfing the National Newswatch and I noticed a Google Ad.

NDP ad on National Newswatch

Here is the larger version.

NDP ad on National Newswatch

That’s the best the NDP could come up with?  Vote NDP and that’s it?  Nothing witty?  Nothing profound?  Nothing at all expect Vote NDP.  It’s like they aren’t even trying anymore.  Off the top of my head I can think of “A fair deal for Saskatchewan families”, “Affordable rent for families”, a couple of old Grant Devine references, “We didn’t screw up the Carlton Trail College merger”, or even “Look at the profits PCS made today” as better options than Vote NDP.

Who could be down there in the Tommy Douglas House and think, “We’ll spend some money on Google Adsense and all that the ads will say is, Vote NDP” and have other people think that this was a good use of money.  I even clicked on the ad and sure enough, it went to a NDP that tracks the success of the campaign.

What’s even weirder is that the NDP were one of the first parties to use online advertising and I am sure it had some role in their building their support amongst younger Canadian voters but it looked a lot better than this.  It would be better to do nothing than this.

I know the NDP have produced some other ads that, were, umm, borrowed from the Ontario Liberal Party.  I am starting to wonder if the problem for the NDP central campaign is that they don’t have the right creative people lined up.  There are campaigns that win and then there are those that lose but you still want to run the best campaign you can because even if lose, you want to give your faithful something to be proud of as they head into opposition (or whatever you are facing).  I am not sure that ads like this motivate anyone to do anything and it wastes some money that could be spent elsewhere.

What went wrong for the Saskatchewan NDP?

The view from Calgary (and the Toronto Star)

“The NDP grassroots won’t even go door knocking anymore . . . the party only appeals to the mushy middle,” says Mitch Diamantopoulos, head of the journalism school at the University of Regina, a longtime activist and observer of Saskatchewan politics.

For Diamantopoulos, the problems began in the 1990s when then premier Roy Romanow swung the party to the right. “Saskatchewan shifted away from a cooperative, public enterprise approach and as a result a lot of longtime NDPers lost their enthusiasm for the party.”

At the same time, farmers were giving up on agriculture and moving to Saskatoon or Regina. As the province became urbanized, the NDP lost its traditional rural base.

In many ways, 62-year-old Lingenfelter personifies the confusion about what the party really stands for. He grew up in southwestern Saskatchewan on a large family farm. First elected as an NDP MLA in 1978, Lingenfelter managed to survive the near sweep by the Progressive Conservatives in 1982 and served as opposition house leader.

When the NDP was returned to power, he became a cabinet minister and eventually deputy premier and was seen as a likely successor to Romanow.

But in 2000 Lingenfelter abruptly resigned and accepted a senior position with an oilpatch heavyweight, Calgary-based Nexen Inc.

Not surprisingly, Lingenfelter became something of a trophy head in corporate Calgary — the former NDP cabinet minister who had joined the fold. So much so that in 2002 when a group of Calgary businessmen and politicians organized a fundraiser for the Saskatchewan Party at the Petroleum Club, Lingenfelter attended on behalf of Nexen and when introduced was given a special round of applause.

There are four things that I see going on in this election.  I am not an NDP insider or supporter although I have a good working relationship with many of them.  The first is Brad Wall.  He just hasn’t screwed up that many things.  If the old line is true that governments are so much elected but rather defeat themselves, the Saskatchewan Party haven’t made that many mistakes which makes it really hard to gain any traction against them.  Along with that is that I think the NDP elected Lingenfelter because they thought Wall would be a one term wonder and they would be back in power this election.  The choice of Lingenfelter as leader was an odd one because it was a return to the past, a past that Saskatchewan voters had just soundly rejected in 2007.

Next up is that I don’t think the NDP are any good in raising money.  NDP candidates are sharing campaign offices in ridings they should be competitive in the cities.  During the drive out to Arlington Beach, we drive through Watrous, Nokomis, and then from there we went to Regina through Craven and Lumsden.  We only saw one NDP sign the entire three hour drive.  One sign.  Even if they were not getting any traction with voters, you would have expected to see signs in the ditches and other public spaces.  There were none.  Meanwhile there was a lot of Saskatchewan Party signs (all on public land) but even in traditional NDP ridings in Regina.  What does it mean?  Signs cost money and I don’t see any of that in rural ridings.  I am assuming that the reason that Judy Junor is using office space downtown rather than in our her (hotly contested) riding is money as well.  This isn’t a couple of blocks outside her riding but is across the river from her riding.  C’mon.

You can blame that on the leader but raising money is also backend process that involves cultivating thousands of relationships and then understanding what buttons to push to get them to cough up $20 or $100 when you need it.  The federal Conservatives are masters of this and have been going back to the PC Canada Fund.  Whether it is direct mail or email, the NDP need to find a better way to cultivate, understand, and benefit from those relationships because the Saskatchewan Party can outspend them anytime in the election cycle.

Thirdly, the NDP are terrible users of new media.  Look at the video the Saskatchewan Party has produced versus the media the NDP are putting out.  Look at how Brad Wall is using Twitter vs. how Dwain Lingenfelter uses Twitter.  Why do I care how Link uses Twitter?  Social media allows voters to connect to a leader and if you are just posting links to some photos posted to Facebook and never send an @ reply, you aren’t connecting.  Wall understands that, Link doesn’t.  Not connecting to voters isn’t always fatal (like Stephen Harper) but it normally is (Elwin Hermanson, Michael Ignatieff, Stephane Dion).  Link didn’t connect to anyone online.

Finally, as much as Ryan Bater needs to win his seat in North Battleford, the NDP need him to win even more.  The NDP don’t do well against the unified right in Saskatchewan, they never have.  Brad Wall, Grant Devine, Ross Thatcher… when a third party (whether it be the PCs or the Libs) get 15% of the vote, the NDP win.  When they don’t, the NDP lose.  Their votes doesn’t grow enough to beat back the centre right challenger (for a contemporary example see Frank Quennel who is about to lose to Roger Parent in Saskatoon Meewasin).  It is why I was so surprised that the NDP didn’t want Ryan Bater in the debate.  A collapse in the Liberal vote benefits the Saskatchewan Party and no one else.  If I am the NDP I am hoping and praying that Bater wins, even at the expense of their own seat for the long term prospects of the party.

I don’t believe that the NDP are staying home and off the doorsteps because of what Roy Romanow did, I think there are elections that you win and some that you lose and this is one that the NDP are going to lose.   Wall’s performance is out of their control but if they don’t get the other three things solved, they are facing an uphill battle no matter what happens and no matter who the leader is.

Where have I seen this advertisement before?

I would have liked this NDP ad a lot better…

…if I hadn’t seen it somewhere before.

You know, considering that most of us have cable which means that we get Ontario television stations and probably saw the McGuinty ad, it seems to be a dumb decision to rip off the ad only weeks after it was on the air down east.   Plus, the white balance (or lighting) on the NDP ad is off which drives me crazy in more ways than you can imagine.