Tag Archives: Corey Tochor

Ridings to Watch

CBC offers up their ridings to watch and it seemed like a pretty odd list so here are my ridings to watch tonight.

  • Saskatoon Meewasin.  The Sask Party threw a ton of resources in an attempt to unseat Frank Quennell.  If they Quennell wins, it means that the NDP still has some life in the cities, the Saskatchewan Party wins, it means that no NDP seats are safe moving forward. Prediction: Roger Parent wins
  • Saskatoon Fairview: Will voters be unhappy that their city councilor and MLA reside in the same household.  I don’t think Andy Iwanchuk will lose but it could cost him some votes and make a race close in a riding that Jennifer Campeau is running hard to win. Prediction: Andy Iwanchuk wins
  • Saskatoon Nutana: Long a safe NDP seat, I heard rumors that the campaign isn’t going that well (no NDP scrutineers in the advance polls).  Interesting to see if the seat flips or not.  Prediction: Very narrow win for Cathy Sproule
  • Saskatoon Eastview:  I wrote about this before but I am still trying to figure out why Judy Junor is using a downtown campaign office to run on the eastside.  I think this could be a victim of the green wave.  Prediction: Corey Tochor wins
  • Battlefords: I hear from Sask Party people that Ryan Bater is under 20% but I also hear that he is winning the sign war.  It’s going to come down to vote splits but let’s go out on a limb and call it for Bater.  If he doesn’t win, the Liberals won’t be a political party provincially by the next election.

Updates:

  • I was correct about Saskatoon Meewasin
  • I was wrong about Saskatoon Fairview, Jennifer Campeau won in a shocking upset.
  • I was kind of right about Nutana, Cathy Sproule won a tight race but I was DM’d by former MLA Pat Atkinson who told me that the NDP were very well organized.   She was right, I was wrong.  Partly because I missed the changes in advance poll scrutineers.
  • I was right in Saskatoon Eastview.
  • I was right about Ryan Bater in Battlefords.  He was beaten badly and I don’t know what the future of the Saskatchewan Liberal Party is except that Ralph Goodale lost in 1982 before winning in 1986.

Saskatchewan Seat Projections

From ThreeHundredEight.com

Saskatchewan seat projections A couple of interesting things to note.

  • The Saskatchewan Party is leading in Saskatoon Eastview and in Meewasin which puts Judy Junor and Frank Quenell’s seats at risk.  Both are longtime NDP MLA’s and former cabinet ministers.  Quenell has pulled difficult elections out in the past and the 17% Liberal support could easily go to Quenell.  Don’t call it for Roger Parent yet.
  • As for Judy Junor, she has traditionally done well in the riding, Corey Tochor looks like a credible candidate for the Saskatchewan Party who see it as a riding they can win.
  • Outside of Saskatoon Meewasin, there is no area in province where there is double digit support for the Liberal Party, including Ryan Bater’s riding of North Battleford.  Since no Liberal leader has won their seat since Linda Haverstock did, I doubt we will see a Liberal in the legislature and I would doubt that the Liberal Party will reach the 15% of vote needed to qualify for reimbursement of election expenses.  Could this be the election that kills the Liberal Party of Saskatchewan?