Tag Archives: Carol Reynolds

Ward 1: Running Against Darren Hill

Saskatoon City Councilor Darren HillA couple of years ago Sean Shaw and I talked about doing a podcast about how to defeat each of the 10 city councilors.  That would only be fun if it was an election year so here we are but Shaw is in Victoria tormenting a new city.  So instead of a podcast, I am doing a series of posts on how I would run a campaign against each other the councilors that are running in the next municipal election.

Darren Hill is the three term incumbent running in Ward 1.  He defeated incumbent Donna Birkmaier (2006), Carol Reynolds (2009) and Robin Bellamey (2012).  So far he is uncontested but with Jeb Bush having some extra time on his hands…  There is still a lot of time between now and and the next municipal election.

What I Would Do If I Was Running Against Him:  To channel my inner Karl Rove, I’d go after his strengths which in part is the role Hill plays in representing Saskatoon on the FCM and SUMA and point out that Hill is more likely to be chatting up Neil Patrick Harris on Twitter than attending to the real and serious issues of Ward 1.  I’d point out that Hill abandoned the western half of Ward 1 when he ran under the Michael Ignatieff led Liberals and he’s priming the pump for another run in the future.  Something along the lines of, “He’s not in it for you.”

Would it work?  Probably not because the perfect time and person to do it was last election when Robin Bellamy ran.  Hill had just been clobbered in the federal race and you could have made a compelling case that said, “City Council is not a plan B”.  Instead Bellamy ran on Cosmo and a quiet support of the Mayor (who isn’t popular in Ward 1) and lost handily to Hill.

This time around Hill’s biggest weakness is how poorly he has spent his communications fund.  No newsletters that I have seen, erratic email communication to the Ward, and a much lower visibility this time around.  While he continues to do excellent constituency work, his biggest vulnerability might be, “we only see you around at election time.”

Is that a winning message.  Probably not.  Those that care about municipal politics are probably the kinds of voters that dialogue with Hill and therefore get a response.  In talking to neighbors, they seem to appreciate the work that Hill has done for them when called upon, even if they haven’t always appreciated all of the city decisions.   That is generally the winning formula for city councilors running for re-election.

Where it does start to become a problem for him is an outside candidate runs for Mayor and channels the frustration with the city quo on a bunch of areas and hill as an incumbent gets caught up on that.  All incumbents are vulnerable on rising crime in Saskatoon, transparency and competence of City Hall, and a desire for change as the economic conditions in the city have changed.  Local campaigns don’t have the money to pound home those issues but riding the coat tails of a mayoral campaign that turns to the theme of change, could make Ward 1 interesting.  Even in an interesting campaign, I can’t see Hill going down in defeat. 

The mistake that people make in municipal elections is that  because they see the world in a left/right spectrum, the rest of the world does.  We don’t.  We care about things like roads being cleaned, potholes being fixed, and safe communities, that is where Hill does a good job. 

Chances of Being Defeated: Low.  Expect to see him as your Ward 1 councilor for the next four years but if you disagree with me, feel free to run or leave your thoughts in the comments below.

Disclosure: I endorsed Hill in the last two elections.  Documents obtained in a FOI of City Councilors named me as a Darren Hill crony and it was suggested that I was a part of a Darren Hill slate.  I am still bitter about that.  More than it suggests that I am any civic politician’s crony and if there was a slate of candidates, it would be the Jordon Cooper slate.

2012 Saskatoon City Council List of Candidates

The race for Saskatoon City Council race is well underway with fundraisers, door knocking and quips on Twitter breaking out all over the place.   Dave Hutton does have the definite candidates list on City Hall Notebook but I decided to create a page myself to keep track of the campaigns).  I have my biases and will disclose them.  Later on this summer I will offer up some endorsements in Ward 1 (where I live), Ward 2 (which I have long had a special affinity for) and perhaps Ward 6 (where I will work) once I have had a chance to talk to candidates and had a chance to review campaign platforms (umm, some platforms would be helpful).

This year I am going to do something different in that I am going to give up the blog (and access to my Twitter feed) for any candidate that wants to use it to reach out on.  I’ll create an account for them, give access to them, and let them talk about whatever issues they want.  If you are interested, let me know at jordoncooper@gmail.com.

Ward 1

  • Incumbent: Darren Hill 
  • Challengers: Carol Reynolds, Robin Bellamy

    The lowdown: Darren Hill will be running for his third term as Ward 1 city councillor.  He will be challenged on the right by Carol Reynolds who ran against hill in the last election and long time candidate and Ward 7 Public School trustee Robin Bellamey (who lives in Ward 8).   While Reynolds and Bellamey both say that represent the right, Hill is a fiscal conservative as well which means there isn’t a lot of room to run in a ward that probably is is more comfortable with the centre.  I am going to predict a Hill victory again.

    Ward 2

  • Incumbent: Pat Lorje
  • Challengers: Marcel Petite

    The lowdown: Long time councillor Pat Lorje is running again in Ward 1 and her opponent is Marcel Petite.  Petite is the executive director of the Core Neighborhood Youth Co-op and outside of a closed Facebook page, he hasn’t said a lot online.  I expect Lorje to win by a large margin.

    Ward 3

  • Incumbent: Ann Iwanchuk
  • Challengers: Mike San Miguel

    The lowdown: Mike San Miguel has been running hard in this ward since narrowly losing to Iwanchuk in the by-election.  Of course on the flip side, Ann Iwanchuk won by around 15% and it’s really hard to defeat an incumbent yet at the same time Iwanchuk in a by-election with a low voter turnout.  I have a lot of respect for both candidates which mean in the end Ward 3 wins.  It should be a great race.

    Ward 4

    The lowdown: Shaw ran hard against Myles Heidt three years ago and narrowly lost to him.  Shaw is an environmental geochemist, head of the Saskatoon Environmental Advisory Committee and local activist while his opponent Davies is the spokesperson for MD Ambulance and involved in Synergy 8.  This will be another really close race.

    Ward 5

    The lowdown: I am not sure why anyone would run against Donauer in Ward 5.  He won in the by-election to replace Gordon Wyant, votes to the right of most issues, and does an excellent job of communicating with his constituents in a riding that traditionally votes Conservative/Saskatchewan Party.  James Ford is a progressive and according to his website will be releasing his platform based on the feedback he gets from constituents.

  • Ward 6

    The lowdown: This isn’t expected to be a close race.  Clark, a popular two term incumbent is a centre/left candidate is a part of the city where centre/left is how they vote.  He is probably one of the more astute thinkers on council which means that when he makes a statement or decision, it’s defensible (even if you don’t agree with it).  My prediction is that Clark wins big.

    Ward 7

    The lowdown: Loewen beat Bzowey to win the ward after Bob Pringle stepped down.  Like Ward 3, this will be a rematch between a popular incumbent and challenger.  While Bzowey has been spending a lot of money in and around the ward with name recognition, Loewen is very popular in the ward and has a motivated campaign team.  My feeling is that with both the advantage of incumbency and a good ground game, she will win again.

    Ward 8

    The lowdown: Glen Penner grew tired of winning all of those elections and has retired.  Ainsley Robertson who ran in the Ward 5 by-election before narrowly losing to Randy Donauer and Eric Olauson who ran in Ward 3 before withdrawing are both running in their home of Ward 8.  Karen Rooney, registered nurse is also running in the ward.

    Ward 9

    The lowdown: The question isn’t if Paulsen will win (she will), its if she will win by acclamation (again).

    Ward 10

    The lowdown: Dubois is another long term councillor being challenged for the second time by Mark Horseman.  Horseman is a data analyst at the University of Saskatchewan and long time Conservative Party activist.  I keep hearing rumours of other jumping into the race so it’s too soon to start thinking about what will happen.