This election series is dragging on as long as the GOP nomination race. I had hoped the series would have been done by now but I’ve been sick with the leg again (still). The medication is taking a lot out of me.
Well we onto Ward 3, a race that has become far less interesting with it looking like Mike San Miguel won’t be running again. So there will be no Iwanchuk/San Miguel III, something that political pundits all over the city will miss watching.
Ann Iwanchuk won in a 2011 by-election and won in 2012 against Mike San Miguel. Some people feel that San Miguel would have won if he hadn’t put out a poorly thought out attack ad on the last week of the campaign. He may have but the attack ad went out and Iwanchuk won.
This is how close the election was. Ann Iwanchuk was driving the #11 car.
(okay, that was actually Denny Hamlin winning the 2016 Daytona 500 but you get the point… it was a close race).
With Mike San Miguel not running again, Ann Iwanchuk should have a clear path to re-election. If I was thinking about running against her, I hope I’d have someone to talk me out of it. Here is why.
- Iwanchuk is a one term incumbent. She has name recognition in the Ward. That isn’t everything. Rik Steernberg had it and was killed by Iwanchuk in the by-election that saw her win her seat on council but still, it’s a big advantage.
- Her husband, Andy Iwanchuk was also a long term MLA in the area. That helps a lot with name recognition and also a network for a campaign team.
- She was backed heavily by labour in the last election and it’s an area where labour matters. Again, it’s not just the money that matters, it is unions endorsing her.
- Iwanchuk is fairly quiet in council (well compared to some of her colleagues) and hasn’t made any boneheaded statements. I disagree with some of what she says but that doesn’t mean that what she said wasn’t thought out. So unlike many long term councilors, there isn’t this collection of memories of head shaking moments that might be embedded in an electorate.
- I have long heard she handles constituent problems and issues promptly and thoroughly.
- Lastly several councilors have told me that she is incredibly effective in closed door meetings (yeah I know, another in-camera leak)
- Her expenses are boring. The only thing that stands out is that she sponsored a tournament with the Saskatoon Aces (no one else did anything like that which I find interesting as I think hockey parents are a good voting block to target). I guess this would the ideal time to point out that her website is offline. Maybe some more money spent on expenses would be helpful.
So if you want to waste a couple of months of your life and $15,000 so you run against her, here is how I would do it:
- Ignore the Mike San Miguel vote totals. Those came in a by-election and then a quick election just months afterwards in which San Miguel worked hard the entire time building profile and voter blocs. I don’t think it is going to be replicated.
- While Iwanchuk is reportedly excellent with dealing with constituents, she is only a first term councilor. That means that there is a good chance she hasn’t had to deal with so many voters that they have all developed a bond yet. That is a small opening but if you are looking for hope, keep looking there.
- I wrote after the transit lockout how much people living in her ward were hurt by the lockout and how silent all councilors were all over it. Being a councilor in a Ward where transit is heavily relied on (and offers some horrible service), that could be a significant issue in some parts of the ward. The problem is that will they vote in significant numbers on one issue? I doubt it. I only bring that up because if there is one councilor that would be hurt by it, it would be her because of the demographics of Ward 3.
- The biggest threat to Iwanchuk is if a tide of change sweeps through council. If the preferred mayoral candidate runs on a platform of change and it catches, it will bring out voters that are looking for something different. That isn’t limited to Iwanchuk, that is every politician. That being said, I just don’t see it. As I will get to in a later post, I think the status quo will be the defining story of this election.
You are basically reduced to door knocking and hoping your well liked incumbent thinks the election is in November of 2017. Good luck with that.
It’s going to be a boring election in Ward 3 no matter who runs against Ann Iwanchuk. While I have heard of one person considering a run, by the time the summer comes along, I could see her run for re-election be uncontested.